The First One-Term President of Kenya

Kenya’s political landscape is shifting rapidly as dissatisfaction with the current administration grows. Recently, Kenyans have taken to social media and the streets to express their discontent with the government, signaling a potential shift in the upcoming 2027 general elections. Despite President William Ruto’s achievements surpassing those of his predecessor, he appears to have lost favor with the electorate.

The president’s leadership style has come under scrutiny, with critics labeling it as overly controlling. This approach has reportedly alienated several political allies, raising concerns about internal divisions within the Kenya Kwanza coalition. Political analysts suggest that the coalition may be heading towards collapse, with the risk of dragging down its members in the next elections.

In a significant development, Head of Government Delivery Services Peter Mbae resigned, citing unfavorable working conditions and unresolved issues, including reports of state-led abductions. This resignation has sparked speculation about further defections from the administration, pointing to deep-seated issues within the government.

Moreover, the government’s struggle to manage its image online has contributed to growing public dissatisfaction. Many Kenyans believe that the administration has lost the critical information war, further eroding public trust.

President Ruto’s fractured relationship with former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, a key figure in the influential Mount Kenya region, poses another significant challenge. In contrast, current Deputy President Kithure Kindiki lacks similar influence, further weakening the president’s political base.

Additionally, President Ruto’s attempts to forge an alliance with opposition leader Raila Odinga have raised eyebrows. Odinga, known for his political resilience, is widely expected to run for president if his bid for the African Union chairmanship fails. This alliance appears fragile, especially considering that most opposition party members remain opposed to the president despite Odinga’s apparent support.

Given these dynamics, political analysts predict that President Ruto faces an uphill battle for re-election. With mounting internal dissent, public dissatisfaction, and fragile political alliances, the likelihood of him becoming Kenya’s first one-term president is increasingly plausible.

Editor’s Conclusion

Considering the current political dynamics and growing dissatisfaction among Kenyans, it is highly likely that President Ruto will lose the 2027 elections. To avoid a humiliating defeat, he should take a strategic step similar to what U.S. President Joe Biden did, endorse a more trusted and influential figure within his coalition to carry forward his political legacy. This move could mitigate potential embarrassment and preserve his influence in Kenya’s political landscape.